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Luxury Sector Will Continue to Slip, Bain Forecasts

The market is on pace to contract 2 percent to 5 percent in 2025 as consumption remains soft across key categories — particularly leather goods, makeup and watches — according to the latest forecast from Bain & Company.
Dior on Bond Street on 7th October 2024 in London, United Kingdom. Bond Street is one of the principal streets in the West End shopping district and is very upmarket. It has been a fashionable shopping street since the 18th century. The rich and wealthy shop here mostly for high end fashion and jewellery.
In the current macroeconomic climate, the timing of a luxury recovery is hard to predict. “Every turbulent headline causes a dip in confidence,” Claudia d’Arpizio said. (Getty Images)
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BoF PROFESSIONAL

Luxury consumption will remain soft for the remainder of 2025 across key categories — particularly leather goods, makeup and watches — as price fatigue and macroeconomic turbulence weigh on consumers, according to the latest forecast from Bain & Company. If current trends continue, the sector will contract 2 percent to 5 percent for the year.

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Further Reading

How Dubai Is Defying the Luxury Downturn

Last week, Zegna staged a runway show in Dubai the emirate, following in the footsteps of Roberto Cavalli, Armani and Chanel. The emirate remains the most established hub for luxury shopping in the Gulf region, which has bucked the industry’s downward trend.

Explainer: How Trump’s Tariffs Threaten Luxury Fashion

The Trump administration’s radical changes to US trade policy won’t push retail prices up enough to directly dampen sales, but the effects on the global economy and consumer sentiment could seriously dent an industry still struggling to bounce back from a sharp downturn in demand.

About the author
Simone Stern Carbone
Simone Stern Carbone

Simone Stern Carbone is Luxury Correspondent at the Business of Fashion. She is based in Zurich and Paris and covers fashion and beauty, with a focus on the dynamic luxury sector.

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