Agenda-setting intelligence, analysis and advice for the global fashion community.

How the K-Shaped Economy Is Redefining the Lipstick Effect

Skincare, makeup and fragrance are often touted for their ability to withstand market turbulence, but a splintering economic landscape is testing them in new ways.

An image of Boots' debut beauty-only store in Battersea Power Station. — Beauty’s resilient reputation is being tested, as subtle shifts in spending habits hint at how consumers may redefine value next. (Courtesy)

Rachael Griffiths

07 January 2026

BoF PROFESSIONAL

A K-shaped economy is a tale of two consumers: the highest earners prop up all discretionary spending, and the lower earners pull back. The US returned to this bifurcated model in 2025, according to the Bank of America Institute. That is, in all categories except for one: beauty.

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The End of the Lipstick Index

After years of double-digit growth and a perception of being impervious to wider economic downturns, the beauty industry is finding that cash-strapped customers aren’t interested in “little luxuries.”

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About the author

Rachael Griffiths

Rachael Griffiths is a Senior Editorial Associate at The Business of Beauty. She is based between St Helens and London, and covers beauty, wellness and industry news.

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Agenda-setting intelligence, analysis and advice for the global fashion community.

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